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China Set For Rapid Decline In Emissions
Dropping steel and cement manufacturing, electrification and rapid renewables build out means plummeting emissions
Coal generation in China continues to fascinate the world, and for good reason. Last year’s emissions from that source alone were in the range of 6.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide, over double global aviation and shipping emissions combined. The big headlines in the past year were reserved for China’s extraordinary new coal plant licensing.
But China only permitted 10 GW of new coal generation in the first half of 2024, a drop of 83%. And coal capacity factors in the country continue to decline, even as wind and solar deployment reach new records annually. Further, China has long been in the habit of shutting down the worst of its coal plants and replacing them as needed with modern supercritical plants. Over 40% of its fleet are now modern supercritical plants burning higher grade, lower sulfur bituminous coal from mostly domestic sources, with lower carbon dioxide emissions per MWh as a result.
