What is Going on With All the Planes?
January 29th: A U.S. Blackhawk army helicopter collides with American Airlines Flight 5342 over the Potomac River in Washington D.C.
January 31st: A Jet Rescue Air Ambulance, Learjet 55, went down with a fiery crash in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
February 6th: Bering Air Flight 445 crashed in the snowy depths of Alaska.
Over the past week and a half, there has been a dramatic increase in airplane disasters. All of which have totaled around 85 deaths and many more injuries. A string of tragedies like these forces us to question why — why have all these crashes been happening?
Perhaps it was miscommunication between the air traffic controllers. Perhaps it was a fault in machinery. Perhaps it was this or that. There are thousands of reasons for why the crashes may have happened, but one reason that may be overlooked is the psychological reason. That is, the effect of social proof on the pilots.
First off, a definition is in need for “social proof.” Social proof is a psychological concept that states that people will often agree in action, or thought, with what others are doing. For example, say you are walking through a cozy, rural downtown during the summer. The sun beats down and the concrete in the distance becomes hazy. You wipe glistening beads of sweat off your forehead and that's when you notice the ice cream shop up ahead. The realization sparks a giddiness inside you as you begin craving a comforting, chilling scoop. Only, you see that there is another store across the street. Suddenly, you’re met with a fork in the road: which ice cream shop should you choose? You’ve never been in town so you have no prior bias, and both the shops have an equally appealing store name and window appearance. As you ponder, melting in the heat, you notice a singular difference between the two: the one across the street has a long line of people waiting outside, while the one on your side of the street only has a few people waiting. Telling yourself that the one across the street must be better because the line is longer, you cross the street and get in line. What you may not be aware of is that you have just acted in accordance with the principle of social proof. You saw a long line of people, and, as such, allowed your decision of which ice cream shop to choose to be influenced and decided by the decisions of others. Not because the ice cream shop itself is better (I mean maybe it was, but who knows, maybe there was just one large family that made the store looked crowded initially and that drew the crowd of folks also adhering to the principle of social proof), but simply because here were more people over there. This is what’s so scary about this psychological heuristic. Social proof operates largely by itself, on an unconscious level without much, if any, true deductive and definitive reasoning. How, though, does this relate to the plane crashes?
Well, the thing is that the pilots too are human. They operate on the same psychological basis as those ice cream shoppers. As such, they too are subject to the mental heuristic of social proof, and, unfortunately, the outcome of their adherence is much more devastating than a lick of ice cream.
To truly the gravity and the why, it may be helpful to look at social proof in other negative areas. Specifically, suicide and its social proof form of copycat suicide. Copycat suicide takes a domino path — one person commits it, then the others follow. This chain of imitation is known as the Werther Effect and has a few distinct characteristics and patterns:
- Well publicized suicides nearly always lead to and drive suicide by social proof. In a study by David Philips, the sociologist found that for every headline, every front page suicide, there followed nearly 60 subsequent suicides. This largely happens because when in a severe depression, people search for a way out. Oftentimes, they drift toward the answer of suicide, an answer which they deem to valid after viewing a highly publicized suicide in the news
- Suicides rates correspond with the type of suicide committed. This is to say that an individual suicide leads to individual suicides and collective suicides lead to collective suicides.
It is a combination of both these characteristics that makes a scary breeding ground for plane crashes. For collective suicides also entails mass transportation crashes, including airplane crashes. As such, a widely aired and publicized airplane crash, such as the Blackhawk-American crash over the Potomac, may lead other pilots to act in similar fashion. We have already seen evidence of this unfold as, within less than two weeks, two more planes and aircraft have gone down. Even though there may be dozens of other factors at play, it cannot be denied that psychological aspects may be playing a pivotal role. Social proof is a powerful, and unconscious, decision making driver that often goes unnoticed and even more often acts as a cause for disasters such as the recent airplane accidents.
What then, should we do against such a powerful, intangible foe? Well, as passengers, we can simply choose not to take an airplane right after mass media coverage of a crash. If we know we need to take a flight, then maybe we should increase our health and flight insurance for the time being. As pilots, we should be aware of the potential effects of social proof on our own decision making and maybe take a couple more shots of coffee to improve focus for the time being. In either scenario, the most important thing is really to be aware of the powers social proof. For it is only when you are aware, that you may take proper precautions, decisions, and defenses. So stay safe, know the potential dangers of plane flights at the moment, know the potential dangers of collective, unconscious conformity. Keep a watch out for things like these, keep safe.
