Sprouts of Hope in Trump’s Rubble
As a leftist — not to be confused with a centrist Democrat — I don’t agree with US President Donald Trump on much. But I do detect some hopeful sprouts in the rubble left by Donald the Disruptor.
On the home front, the US is bracing for a recession. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says we’re heading into from public spending, and Trump himself talks of “a little disturbance” ahead. The Atlanta Federal Reserve says the numbers show a downturn coming. It must be true!
Not exactly “hopeful” most people would say. Certainly not for the private-sector workers and managers who may soon be joining federal bureaucrats fired by Doge in unemployment lines. But painful and unfair as that may be, it’s better than continued high growth in an economy as huge, wasteful, energy-intensive, and dedicated to staying on fossil fuels as the US.
Degrowth has to start somewhere to save the planet, and the US is the obvious place. But it’s not going to happen in America as an official policy objective soon enough to save the climate, ocean life, and species diversity — if ever. Although recession isn’t the path degrowthers would chose, it’s the path that’s presenting itself. And a shaky stock market suggests that low-income households won’t be alone in experiencing an enforced cut in consumption. The rich and semi-rich will feel the squeeze, too.
An important additional ray of hope inside the US: Led by Bernie Sanders, the Real Left is showing real signs of life. There will be no return to normal, and those of the left and right who understand that and the need it implies for alternatives are starting to move.
The centrist Democrats, mired in devotion to the status quo ante, are mostly still paralyzed. Although they’re incompetent at political combat with the right, having spent the last 50 years edging rightwards themselves, the Democrats have shown considerable skill and dedication at keeping the Left in the background.
Energy and Climate
There are sprouts of hope on the American energy and climate fronts, too. The US oil and gas industry thrived throughout Joe Biden’s presidency, but its leaders were irritated by his climate-change rhetoric. Oil execs love Trump’s rhetoric, but are now suffering as they gather for a major industry event in Houston, to quote one Reuters commentator.
Trump’s Energy Secretary, former fraking-services executive Chris Wright, conceded at that same oil industry gathering that climate change exists — as anybody who ever goes out of doors knows — but he describes it as “a global physical phenomenon that is a .” I agree, but I’d say that means the modern world can’t continue as it has been. The rot cannot be allowed to consume the planet. On that, Wright disagree. He seems fine with the collateral damage.
However, Wright did also concede that there’s likely to be “a lot of disruption” ahead in the oil and gas industry. In an , he predicted this shakeout will result in lower oil and gas production costs that will allow US oil oil output to keep growing — perhaps after a brief pause — even if oil prices fall by another 25% or so. Few oil and gas executives agree with that part of his assessment.
High Spirits Elsewhere
The sprouts of hope — or at least shifts to a more positive mood — aren’t all in the US. Among the former courtiers over 80 years of American empire, initial panic at Trump’s tariff and other hostile talk is giving way to heady feeling of independence in Europe and Canada. To me, it looks more like adolescent high spirits than well-thought-out policy choices. But it’s fun to see them try to think and act for themselves again and, as an American, I can only wish them luck. America has had the job of telling them how to behave for much too long now.
The German center-right and center-left parties striving to form a government coalition that keeps the populist-right at bay have announced their intention to massively weaken a spending cap designed to enforce “austerity,” the decades-long spending squeeze resulting from Germany’s distaste for government borrowing. The Germans’ austerity obsession was used to hammer the Greek leftists into submissive retreat and reaction, install “technocratic” governments in Italy in place of elected officials, and undermine Germany’s own once-lauded national railway system and welfare support structure.
The bad news, as I see it, is the intention by Germany, France, many other European countries, and the EU itself to direct the increased spending mainly into armaments. But perhaps Trump will actually reach a settlement of the Ukraine War first, who knows. And in any case, the Europeans are doing their own thing for a change. What they do with their money is not America’s decision to make, much less my decision to make as an American.
The Canadian Liberals have picked a new leader, Mark Carney, who as a former Canadian and UK central bank chief, personifies the liberal/neoliberal turn of the last 50 years even more fully than did his predecessor Justin Trudeau. In their giddiness at positive polling results, liberals in Canada itself and within the US and UK mainstream media have also practically declared Carney winner of an upcoming electoral battle with Conservative Party leader and determined resource exploiter Pierre Poilievre.
That’s probably as premature as thinking the neoliberal EU has gained a new lease on life against doubters across Europe on the right and the left, as more than a few European commentators are suggesting. But again, who knows, and — as noted in the European context — it’s fun to see the Canadians regain their famed composure and quiet self-esteem.
It’s also been fun to see Mexican leader Claudia Scheinbaum retain her composure throughout. Hopefully she’ll live up to her reputation as a genuine leftist and climate defender — in notable contrast to the throwback neoliberals onstage in Europe and Canada. We’ll see. But in the meantime, every sprout of hope is worth clinging to.
Plants in the Rubble
Thanks to economic historian and , I came across a fascinating article this weekend on — improbably enough — “The History of the flora and vegetation of Berlin and their conservation,” from a French eco-farming journal of 1997. The article describes the “intensive and spontaneous” growth of plant life on the “rubble” left by bombing of a section of Berlin next to the manicured gardens and lawns of the Berlin-Tiergarten. The rubble produced at least 140 seed plans and 200 types of insects, according to a study done at the time. The Tiergarten had “at most one-quarter as many insect species.”
The manicured Tiergarten remains. The rubble garden was, of course, plowed under and paved over. Still, it reminded me of the potential for diversity and strength in the sprouts of hope appearing in the rubble of Trump’s first weeks in office.
