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Has the housing market reached its peak?
U.S. home prices have reached a plateau and will begin edging down, according to a new analysis by economists at real estate brokerage Redfin.
The company calls for U.S. home-sale prices to dip 1% year over year by the fourth quarter of 2025. That’s hardly a crash, of course, but it does mark a change from the relentless rise of home prices since 2012.
“Home prices are expected to decline nationwide because there are more home sellers than homebuyers in the market,” Redfin said.
In a separate report released this morning, the National Association of Realtors said the median home sale price for April was $414,000, the highest April median on record. But April 2025 home sales slowed to an annual pace of just 4.0 million, the slowest number for the month since the dark days of April 2009.
“It’s not a good start to the spring homebuying season,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told reporters.
Robert Frick, an economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, was similarly downbeat.
“It’s clear that high mortgage rates and high prices combined with high consumer anxiety has created a unique alchemy that is depressing the market,” Frick said. “We’ll need mortgage rates close to 6% to break the hex and bring the market to some sembleance of normalcy.”
