The Early F1 2025 Title Battle
Three or Four Contenders?
We’re five races into the F1 2025 season, having just finished a distinctly so-so Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. But throughout this period the gaps at the top have been tight, and the contenders for the title seem pretty consistent. It’s shaping up to be a good battle, but who’s the favourite? And are there four contenders or just three?
Russell — the Fourth Contender?
Of those who have done very well at the sharp end this year, Russell is clearly the fourth man. Generally, he’s driven very well, but here and there the Mercedes has let him down. Saudi Arabia was the biggest example of this, as tyre wear and lack of pace cost him places to both Leclerc and Norris. He was even worried about his tyres failing to make it to the end of the race.
In Bahrain, Russell did very well to keep Norris behind him. This was despite Russell having a plethora of problems with the car and Norris being much faster. However, the lack of wins for Russell and the occasional weak performance means he’s at risk of losing touch with the top 3. They’re separated by just 12 points after Saudi Arabia, whereas he’s a 14 points behind the man in third.
Verstappen — Defending Champion
And the man in third is Max Verstappen, the defending champion. His car is not as quick as the McLaren and seems far more up and down. At some circuits it’s competitive and at others (Bahrain standing out) it’s probably the fourth best.
However, Verstappen’s an incredibly good driver and has dragged out some great performances, such as the Japanese pole lap which (on a circuit where passing was almost impossible) also secured him the win. This was aided by McLaren refusing to split their strategy despite having two cars near the front, and highlights a big advantage Verstappen has.
He’s the clear number one driver of Red Bull. There’s no debate: if a team mate is in his way, he’ll be let past. If he needs a team mate’s race to be sacrificed and the other driver to act as a roadblock for the McLarens, it’ll happen. At McLaren, by contrast, they’ve got two very good drivers and are operating on an equal basis.
The downside is that this means they’re taking points off each other. In a close battle, this could be a critical advantage for Verstappen, who is only 2 points behind Norris and 12 off Piastri.
Norris — Former Frontrunner
Norris had been the title frontrunner until the result in Saudi Arabia. Now he’s 10 points behind Piastri, a figure that seems incredible when we remember at the first race Norris won and Piastri was only 9th. Norris is very, very quick but he’s got some flaws and lost some ground to his team mate.
He’s emotionally expressive, which many have also taken to mean emotionally fragile. I think this is slightly overstated but there’s no denying he was the only man to make a critical error in Jeddah qualifying, putting his McLaren into the wall to start only 10th when he was (very narrowly) favourite for pole. More concerning is that his wheel-to-wheel racing is weaker than both Piastri and Verstappen.
It took him far too long to get past Leclerc in Bahrain, which then cost him the chance to get past Russell. Contrast that with Piastri’s fantastic and unorthodox pass on Hamilton in Saudi Arabia (and for anyone pointing out the Aussie was on fresh tyres and had a faster car, Verstappen struggled to pass Hamilton in the same circumstances).
Norris does have plenty of positives. He’s really quick, and showed over 2024 that he could be so on a consistent basis. This was in stark contrast to Piastri. However, the huge qualifying advantage he had over Piastri in 2024 has evaporated. It might be that losing the lead allows a little easing of pressure, and with a fortnight break between Saudi Arabia and Miami that might be enough time for Norris to settle down.
Piastri — New Title Favourite?
Piastri’s only in his third season in F1 and is still improving. Last year he was better wheel-to-wheel than Norris (passes on Leclerc in Azerbaijan and Norris in Monza stand out). But he did lack in qualifying, something that’s been rectified with multiple pole positions already. The major weak spot was inconsistency. Piastri, jointly with Hamilton, was top scorer for a few races in the middle of 2024 but had a slower start and weaker finish than Norris. It’s too early to say if that’s entirely gone, but if Piastri can maintain this pace consistently he’s in very good shape to win the title in only his third season.
It’s ironic that the youngster seems far more emotionally resilient than his more experienced team mate, but as others have said, he’s not unlike Kimi Raikkonen in his very calm manner.
Spain — a Turning Point?
McLaren are fast and versatile, and this has enabled them to be 1–2 in the title race. However, there’s a regulation change from Spain (start of June) which could be major. The flexi-wing regulations were meant to be stable for the whole season but the FIA, in its infinite wisdom, decided late on to change this and effectively ban front wings from flexing from Spain onwards.
McLaren adopted this early last year and seem to have a great understanding of it, so many think the change could cost them pace relative to Red Bull. The question is whether this is major or minor. Verstappen’s already in the mix: if he gains a pace advantage then McLaren’s equal approach to drivers could easily cost them the title.
Richard
