F1 2025 Title Contenders
Who Might be the Next World Champion?
It’s still pretty early to try and assess the drivers likeliest to win the title in 2025, with just two race weekends completed and the Japanese Grand Prix still to come. But we do know enough to have a hazy watercolour of an idea of how things stand.
Norris Versus Piastri
Norris had a near perfect weekend in very tricky conditions in Australia. The wet track meant half a dozen drivers just lost it and crashed out, but he was spot on throughout and maximised his points. Piastri was a bit unlucky getting beached in grass but recovered for a handful of points. In China, roles were reversed, with Norris making mistakes and Piastri performing very well to take almost the maximum points from both the sprint and race, rapidly narrowly the gap to his team mate and putting him right behind Verstappen and Russell.
The McLaren looks the class of the field and both drivers are, overall, doing very well. In Australia, there were moments when Piastri looked faster but backmarkers got in the way. It remains to be seen who will have the whip hand in 2025. I wouldn’t be surprised if we got a McLaren 1–2, but last year development was critical and saw the top dog vary from one race to another. On top of that, the gaps to those behind are not huge, certainly smaller than Red Bull at the start of either 2023 or 2024.
All that said, I disagree with the markets a little. These have Norris as a clear favourite with Piastri a strong second but clearly further back. I think they have a roughly equal chance, perhaps very slightly better for Norris. Piastri was as long as 14 for the title pre-season. I think he’s still being underestimated.
Verstappen in the Running?
Verstappen is the reigning world champion, and has been since his ever so slightly controversial victory over Hamilton in 2021. But is he still in the game this season?
At the moment, yes, but there is cause for concern, and one bright note. The bright note is that Red Bull fear the 2026 regulations will see them suffer badly in a new engine formula. Why’s that good? Because while other teams are likelier to shift development to 2026 early to try and get a running start in a new regulatory era, Red Bull are more likely to stay focused on 2025 if there’s any chance whatsoever of a title. On top of that, Verstappen’s the clear team leader so doesn’t need to worry about his team mate taking any of ‘his’ points.
But the cause for concern is severe. The Red Bull’s looking potentially the third or fourth fastest car. And it looks a handful on top of that. While the McLaren does seem a bit tricky it’s also really fast. The Red Bull appears both slower and way harder to drive. Lawson is a good driver but in the Red Bull he has the worst qualifying record on the grid and after just two race weekends there’s talk of replacing him.
In addition, Red Bull’s development in 2024 was mostly outmatched by McLaren and the other top teams, but in 2025 they start off with a worse car and need to win the development race. The possibility of focusing on this year while others shift to 2026 may help, but perhaps not enough.
I rate Verstappen very highly, and at the time of writing he’s second in the standings on 36 points to Norris’ 44. But it does feel like this could be the season someone new wins the title.
Quick Note: as I’m writing this it’s just been confirmed that Lawson will be replaced by Tsunoda after only two races. Looking at the title race, I don’t think this will make a huge difference, unless Tsunoda turns in an amazing performance. On the driver side, it’s a bit rough for Lawson, though I imagine his conduct towards Perez last season might mean a huge surge in Mexican Schadenfreude.
Ferrari
Ferrari have a great driver lineup but have had a distinctly iffy start to the season. Hamilton was impressive in the sprint race in China, but a double DSQ took the shine off in the Grand Prix, and that’s after they were down in the middle of the points. Australia was tricky because it was wet, and a bad strategy call meant the Ferrari points haul was minimal. Even so, getting outscored in the first race by Hulkenberg in a Sauber was not exactly fantastic.
Ferrari might have the pace to eventually challenge McLaren, judging by the sprint, but they need to be both more tactically astute and to sharpen up their speed a notch. Hamilton was the only man from the top 6 in China who had to have two stops, which may indicate a worrying tyre degradation situation. The season is long, and the team did a great job last year bringing upgrades, but if things don’t improve then, sooner or later, Ferrari will switch its attention to 2026.
Russell — the Overlooked Man
Russell is having a very strong start to the season but has been somewhat overshadowed by the McLarens, Verstappen, and the excellent pairing of Leclerc and Hamilton. But the Mercedes is looking pretty good. Not quite as swift as the McLaren but much easier to drive. Russell also benefits from Antonelli starting well but not really being a threat, giving him a de facto number one status not dissimilar to Verstappen.
List: Formula 1 | Curated by Richard Kilner | Medium
Although the McLaren is the fastest car on the grid, Russell’s Mercedes is not far away, and he did very well to split them in qualifying at the Chinese Grand Prix. If a particular circuit suits the Mercedes we can expect Russell to top score, whereas McLaren circuits have already been divided between Norris and Piastri as they take points off each other.
The Mercedes does need to either win the development race or have McLaren screw up, however. But I think Russell has a better chance of going for the title than many people are giving him credit for.
Richard
