F1 2025: Ranking the Teams
Thoughts Post-Testing
We’ve had testing and the first F1 race of the year is due the weekend after next. But who’ll be fastest when the sandbagging ends and the Australian Grand Prix kicks off?
Testing’s notoriously vague and fuzzy when it comes to assessing pace, but it does offer some guidance. Here’s my guess of where the teams stand, from slowest to fastest.
10 — Sauber
Sauber were far and away the slowest in 2024 and while the 2025 car will hopefully be a little better it still seems be very much the runt of the litter. With Audi taking over and new regulations set for 2026 the team will be nearly totally focused on developing next year’s car. However, I hope it can compete for points a little more often than in 2024, when it was only in the final few races that a glimmer of pace was seen.
9 — Racing Bulls
The lower end of the midfield looks very close, so 7th to 9th might be entirely wrong, but I think Racing Bulls are probably down in 9th. The livery looks great, the car much less so. Tsunoda’s a good driver, probably looking to put in an impressive performance so he can go to another team in the near future, but Hadjar’s a rookie which will limit the help he can give with development.
Speaking of which, development was RB’s weak spot in 2024. They started that season as one of the best midfield cars, behind only Aston Martin, but got outdeveloped first by Haas and then Alpine. Starting from a presumed lower base, this might be a rough season for Racing Bulls.
8 — Aston Martin
Aston Martin have been kings of the midfield for the last two seasons, courtesy of strong starts (especially in 2023) and Alonso remaining one of the fastest drivers around. However, in both those years development was poor, with a majority of points coming early on before pace dropped off. The team reckons that upgrades in 2024 worked but the problem was instability. You might ask: but what about Adrian Newey?
Newey had zero input into the current car and only started working for the team in March. His focus will be largely (maybe entirely) on 2026. In testing, the Aston Martin looked fairly mediocre. Add to that Lance Stroll not pulling his weight and I think Aston Martin will see a much worse year than either of the last two.
7 — Haas
Haas had a strong 2024 and were close to beating Alpine. Their driver lineup for 2025 is completely changed with Hulkenberg and Magnussen replaced by Ocon and Bearman. Ocon can be underrated due to attention on his less than friendly relations with team mates, and Bearman’s a promising talent given his great substitute drives in 2024.
This is the single hardest team to assess, however, because they spent almost the entire test looking at high fuel race running and so their times were seemingly very slow. But that’s similar to 2024. I think Ocon and Bearman will be closely matched and the Haas car will be fairly good. They also developed very nicely all year long in 2024, which bodes well for this year.
6 — Alpine
But who’s the best midfield team? It looks nice and tight between Alpine and Williams, and I’ve gone for Alpine to finish in 6th place. Unfortunately for Jack Doohan there’s endless speculation that he’s going to be axed perhaps half a dozen races into the season and replaced with Franco Colapinto. The Argentine was fast right away in Williams last year but also crashed a lot.
On the other side of the garage, Pierre Gasly remains one of the stars of the midfield and is a great team leader. The car itself looks good, on a par with the Williams, perhaps better, but I think the Williams driver pairing is stronger overall.
5 — Williams
Sainz and Albon is a fantastic lineup for a team that finished 9th last year, and team principal James Vowles seems to be acutely aware of what the team needs. Even though 2025 might be seen as a stepping stone to a potential huge leap forward when the regulations change next year the 2025 Williams is looking a much better car than last year.
Its rear suspension is two years more advanced than in 2024, when they ran the 2023 version of suspension and gearbox from Mercedes. Whether they actually are ahead of Alpine is tough to call but they look very much in the fight to be best of the rest.
4 — Red Bull
Before testing I would’ve probably put Red Bull in 3rd, but afterwards I’ve got to say it seems like the team is last of the big hitters. I still expect Verstappen to be able to fight for podium results and wins, maybe even defend his title, but I strongly suspect Lawson is going to end up 8th in the drivers’ championship.
After the initial blistering pace in 2024 the Red Bull struggled to keep up with the development of other top teams at times, and if they start lower down that problem may be compounded.
One silver lining is that the FIA have completed a pre-season u-turn. Flexi-wings were meant to be allowed all season long but more stringent load tests are being brought in from Spain (about a third into the season), effectively banning flexi-wings from then on.
McLaren and Mercedes benefited most from this innovation and are likely to be hardest hit, while Red Bull got the least from it and will probably, relatively, gain from the ban.
3 — Mercedes
Opinion is very split among chattering F1 fans as to whether the Ferrari or Mercedes was faster. I think Mercedes loses out because the unusually cool temperatures in Bahrain (which featured numerous episodes of drizzle in testing) may flatter the Silver Arrows (weirdly, the Mercedes has really liked cooler temperatures in recent years).
Antonelli was looking very at home and Russell’s obviously quick, but on a driver basis I’ve got to say Leclerc and Hamilton will be faster.
2 — Ferrari
It’s pretty much a dream driver pairing for the Prancing Horse, and their car’s looking very tasty too. One additional reason I’ve put them ahead of Mercedes is that I think they were sandbagging a touch on long runs and, while probably still behind McLaren, I think their pace is closer to the top team and ahead of Mercedes.
A potential drawback of the car is being a little rough on tyres, so we’ll have to see how that goes. They were strong all through 2024 and I’m expecting a repeat of the McLaren versus Ferrari battle for the constructors’ title, and one or both Ferrari drivers to be competing for the drivers’.
1 — McLaren
Arguments rage about whether Ferrari or Mercedes are looking faster but there’s consensus around the supremacy of McLaren. In Norris’ hands especially it looked alarmingly fast. Piastri is no slouch either, and together they have the chance to steer the team to take both titles.
The loss of the flexi-wing mid-season is a potential cause for concern. But, right now, McLaren are looking very much the team to beat.
It’s worth a quick reiteration of the introduction that testing is notoriously iffy when it comes to predicting things. Luckily, we don’t have long to find out how things really stand.
Richard
