F1 2025 Predictions
Will the Season Live up to Its Hype?
It’s been a little while since my last post here, but for those wondering I can confirm I’m still alive. And F1 is drawing near again, which means it’s time for some predictions for the F1 2025 season.
Same Title Winners
My prediction for the drivers’ title is Max Verstappen. Again.
Early pre-testing mood music suggests that the Red Bull might well be a little behind the McLaren/Ferrari. However, Verstappen has two big advantages over every other driver in those teams: he’s a clear number one at Red Bull (diminishing points lost to a team mate) and he’s absolutely clockwork when it comes to racking up points.
There’s another reason why Verstappen could make it five on the bounce. Flexi-wings came in during 2024 and were used best of all by McLaren, then Mercedes. This is why Red Bull’s early advantage was wiped out. Eventually they, and Ferrari, got their own flexi-wings but the early adopters were the ones to maximise the advantage.
Flexi-wings were meant to be ok for the whole season in 2025. The FIA, naturally, decided to u-turn, so from Spain new front wing tests effectively ban flexi-wings. This means two-thirds of the season will be without flexi-wings. Cui bono? Red Bull, primarily, with Ferrari perhaps also gaining an advantage over McLaren and Mercedes.
As for the constructors’, both McLaren and Ferrari have fantastic driver lineups. My feeling is that McLaren will develop better and if Piastri continues to improve then the papaya pair should end up on top. I do expect it to be a McLaren-Ferrari battle, though not only because the driver lineups are as tasty as a coffee Swiss roll but because I think those teams are likely to have the fastest cars.
Williams Progress
The midfield is super-tight, so I’m not sure if, or how much, Williams will advance up the standings this year but I do expect them to score at more races and to amass more points than in 2024.
Couple of reasons for this, starting with the obvious: Sainz. Sainz is scientifically proven to be eleven thousand times faster than Latifi or Sargeant, and is also a substantial improvement on Colapinto (who started very well but then racked up crashes like nobody’s business). Sainz and Albon is a phenomenal pairing for a team that finished 9th and even if nothing else changed this alone would be a cause for optimism.
Last year, every Williams driver had multiple DNFs. Sainz should be steadier and this will reduce or eliminate the 2024 problem of funds being diverted from development to producing spare parts.
The car’s mostly an evolution over last year but does have rear suspension two years more advanced (because they ran the 2023 Mercedes gearbox and rear suspension last season). While I’m sure James Vowles, team principal, has a primary focus on 2026 and the new regulations, the 2025 Williams should be much more competitive in the midfield than it was last year.
Most Rookies to Lose Out — except Bearman
From making sod all changes to totally juggling the grid with six (or seven if Doohan gets replaced by Colapinto, as seems highly likely) rookies, 2025 has very few unchanged driver lineups. The newcomers are mostly going to come off second best because they’re up against experienced team mates, some of whom are very impressive.
I think upsets are credible. While I back Hulkenberg to beat Bortoleto, the Brazilian has an impressive track record so far so it wouldn’t be astonishing if things turned out differently. However, I think the newcomer likeliest to beat his team mate is Oliver Bearman, who is up against Esteban Ocon in the all-new Haas lineup.
Bearman competed thrice last year for two different teams. For Ferrari, he scored on his debut and was just a pit stop behind Leclerc. He drove twice for Haas, beating Hulkenberg by less than half a second for the final point in Azerbaijan and finishing 12th in a very wet Brazil. Ocon’s a good driver, and sometimes that gets overlooked because of his aggressive antics, but I think Bearman’s shown impressive pace already and I suspect the new driver will end up with more points.
A Narrower but Closer Season
In 2024 almost every race weekend except the first five and Monaco was incredibly exciting because the pecking order constantly changed with a wide range of drivers and teams vying for the win. This was fantastic for each individual race but Verstappen was always able to do enough to maintain a healthy advantage over Norris. On top of that, the Briton faced the difficulty of not just beating Verstappen but having to beat Ferrari, Mercedes, and his own team mate, which made his job a lot more complicated.
My guess is that 2025 will be more conventional, with fewer strong competitors but a closer battle for the drivers’ title. I agree with the consensus that we’re probably going to see Verstappen versus Norris part two, potentially with Leclerc joining the party.
My predictions for last season were almost entirely wrong, so do take the above with a boulder of salt.
Richard
