F1 2024 Predictions: How did I do?
Delphic or Dimwit?
The F1 season unfurled in a way (after the first half-dozen or so races) I never expected. So how did my predictions stack up?
Prediction 1: Verstappen = Champion
This was not the most heroic prediction in the world after the Dutch driver’s total domination of the 2023 season. However, for much of 2024 he did not have the fastest car and faced a genuine title challenge from Norris.
Ultimately, excellent driving by Verstappen, McLaren perhaps not extracting the maximum results from their performance, and the competitive nature of the season (making it harder for McLaren to narrow the points gap) combined to ensure the Dutchman retained his title.
Prediction 2: Alpine and more Crashing
There was surprisingly little contact between the two drivers given Gasly and Ocon are not exactly best friends forever but are similar on pace, meaning they end up close together quite a bit on-track. Indeed, the so-called Destructors’ Championship (following how much crash-induced damage costs are amassed over a season) has Gasly with practically none.
However, they did make contact in one race, with Ocon making an ill-judged overtaking attempt in Monaco of all places.
But was it a crash? Well… you can argue it was a minor one. But, being honest, that’s probably taking things too far. Aggressive and unnecessary contact, but not a crash. So, to my immense surprise, this forecast did not actually come true.
Prediction 3: Alonso to Mercedes
Utterly wrong. Toto Wolff preferred Kimi Antonelli to the very experienced Alonso as a brief stopgap ahead of the younger driver’s debut. This may work to Alonso’s advantage, if Newey can do what Newey does and deliver a fantastically fast car for Aston Martin in 2026. However, this prediction was also wrong.
Prediction 4: Ricciardo to Red Bull
I feel mildly aggrieved by this. As Ricciardo has left RB and it seems (but is not confirmed officially at the time of writing) that Perez is set to leave Red Bull. Ricciardo was not terrible this year, but he was a step behind Tsunoda.
It seems likely right now that Tsunoda or Lawson will be promoted to the meatgrinder that is the second Red Bull seat. But, once again, this prediction proved false.
Prediction 5: Albon to beat Tsunoda and Ricciardo, RB to beat Williams
The Williams was much less competitive than I’d expected. However, this was not wholly wrong. Albon was above Ricciardo in the standings (albeit tied on 12 points apiece) but below Tsunoda (who racked up 30). Obviously, this means RB beat Williams overall too. So this was half- or three-quarters right.
Overall Result
A less than magnificent one and a half out of five (two and a half for those who consider Ocon-Gasly in Monaco to have been a proper crash). In my defence, 2024 did prove to be one of the most entertainingly unpredictable seasons in modern F1 history, and while none of the predictions were utterly daft they did mostly prove in error. I was closer to dimwit than Delphic, alas. We’ll see how I do for 2025 down the line.
This is perhaps my last Medium post this year, and I wish you all a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
Richard
