Member-only story
Bitcoin’s Ascending Cycle: Why the Top Is Still Ahead
A Technical and Historical Analysis of the 2024–2026 Bull Market with Projections to $225K
Author Note
This analysis is grounded in over 50 years of technical, hardware, and software engineering experience, spanning legacy minicomputers, Unix kernel systems, cryptographic systems, and blockchain architecture. Since 2010, I have tracked Bitcoin from protocol to price level—across every cycle—pairing volatility structure with profitability modeling to build predictive frameworks that anticipate not just direction but behavioral timing.
As of Q2 2025, Bitcoin’s price regime continues to follow the historically repeatable pattern I’ve categorized as Reversal→ Bottoming→ Appreciation→ Acceleration. The current market sits deeply within the Acceleration Phase, and I project it will remain there through early Q1 2026.
Cycle Context and Structural Setup
Bitcoin trades near $95,615, following a series of higher lows and reclaiming the 20-week and 50-week EMAs with strength. Weekly MACD is accelerating, RSI is rising toward overbought, and the MVRV Z-score (~3.9) and Puell Multiple (<2.5) confirm this is not yet a terminal top, but a maturing phase with upside extension…
