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GEOPOLITICS · UKRAINE
Ukraine at the Epicenter of a Global Power Realignment — The Last Straw
Bracing for impact as liberal norms crack under a militaristic resurgence bent on global domination
Ukraine remains extra cautious about a ceasefire. A strategic pause could allow Russia to regroup more quickly than Ukraine and launch an overwhelming blitzkrieg when economic conditions are most favorable to Russia.
Trump’s plan is simple. Freeze the front-line, lift sanctions on Russia, let them regroup, and then let them consume Ukraine.
Trump’s administration wants to offer Russia an off-ramp to restore economic ties with the West at Ukraine’s expense. A sacrificial goat for a broad geostrategic goal.
But Ukraine isn’t going to make any goofy moves without a security guarantee. Trump’s idea is to learn from the Russians how to manipulate Ukraine into feeling at least temporarily secure enough to agree to some kind of deal that is advantageous to Russia. They are essentially playing chicken with Ukraine, proposing deals that cannot work, so they can say, “we tried, we really did,” as a justification for removing sanctions.
